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In June, I attended the annual conference of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and went to three sessions on mortality.  I know, you already wish that you were able to attend with me!

In the first part of my career, I didn’t care at all about mortality assumptions – pick a table, do the calcs, move on.  When I started at Mercer in 1987, every pension funding valuation was an opportunity to update from the GAM71 table to the very new GAM83 table.  These were tables published by the Society of Actuaries based upon mortality experience in the United States.  But as I have gotten older, I have become more interested in mortality.  This isn’t to be better at selecting a table to perform pension valuations – it is because I see the bigger picture around the implications for changing expectations around life expectancy.  Somewhere along the way I realized that the mortality assumptions were proxies of our overall health.

I still remember presenting one of ASI’s earliest clients with their December 31, 2002 valuation report.  About $10 million in liabilities and about a $200,000 loss on ‘pensioner mortality less than expected’.  The CFO quipped “I know where the retirees live, maybe I need to drive around their neighborhoods at night”.  It would be sinister if it wasn’t so funny.  But underlying the joke was the fact that the company might have underbudgeted their long-term liabilities if in fact retirees were going to be living longer than GAM83 predicted.

Over the years, new mortality tables have been developed.  The UP94 table introduced generational mortality that anticipated continued improvement in rates of mortality as new generations were born.  The CPM tables were published by the CIA and based upon mortality in Canada and again offered ‘improvement scales’ to respond to the anticipated wisdom that every generation lives longer than the one before. 

COVID and Ozempic

We have dropped the 19 now and just call it COVID.  Some call it covid.  Spelling it lowercase lessens the mental strain we all face when we are reminded of what we went through in 2020 and 2021 (mostly).

Well, we now have five years of data since covid hit and the results are interesting.  I already wrote about much of the data here.  In a nutshell mortality has been elevated for five years although we are seeing a reversion to pre-covid levels.

What was interesting at the conference was the emerging information on the positive effects the GLP-1 and GIP drugs are having on our health (Ozempic is the most well-known brand name).  It seems that our long march to ill health through diabolical food manufacturing is suddenly slowing and for some that have access to these expensive drugs – significant levels of weight loss are being achieved.  In addition, there are benefits beyond weight loss.  This article from Washington University offers the following:

“GLP-1RA drugs were associated with significant benefits to neurological and behavioral health, with reduced risks of seizures and addiction to substances such as alcohol, cannabis, stimulants and opioids. People taking the weight-loss drugs also experienced decreased risks of suicidal ideation, self-harm, bulimia and psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. WashU Medicine’s findings also showed a decreased risk of neurocognitive disorders such as Alzheimer’s and dementia.”

The big question I left with from the conference was whether this new class of drugs could jolt us to a new level of longer life expectancy.  I haven’t even started to evaluate what that would mean for my clients, taxpayers, and contributors to the CPP – but for society it would probably be a positive outcome.

Lifespan vs Healthspan

Part of my heightened interest in mortality is my own aging.  About ten years ago my buddy Shawn, who lives in Ottawa, said to me and a group of buddies from university living all over Canada and the US, that if we don’t purposely plan to get together the next time we see each other in-person will be at one of our funerals.  Shawn’s observation drove home not only how easy it is to be busy with day-to-day life but also that as we were all heading down the road to age 60, we were entering a few decades where not everyone was expected to come out the other end.  Lucky for us we have had an annual reunion since 2019, and no one has exited the group yet. 

Another telltale sign that we are all older – we made it to the Atomic Rooster for Friday night and then in a surprising turn of events, we were too tired to get to The Chateau Lafayette for the Saturday night tradition of the Lucky Ron Show and instead just played cards.  Another harsh reminder that your lifespan is not nearly as important as your health span.  Being alive in a wheelchair, not knowing what day it is due to dementia is not the life any of us hope to enjoy in old age.  What matters is having the energy, mobility, and cognitive function that makes life worth living.

These new wonder drugs are positively affecting people’s health span.  I have been slightly overweight since I left university – an indulgent life will do that.  I am getting more aches and pains in my joints.  I never connected the two until one of the presenters advised that every extra pound of weight puts an extra six pounds of pressure on your knees.  Maybe I should know that, but I didn’t.  I have lost 15 pounds this year and my joints feel better – imagine!

Quick Fixes and Long-term Solutions

The dark side of the GLP-1 craze are the facts that for many they need to stay on the drug forever to maintain the positive results, that weight training is critical to sustaining muscle while losing fat, and for those that don’t change their eating habits and just eat less, there are many additional health benefits being lost.

For these drugs to truly change our world, people are going to have to use them for a limited time during which they are going to have to rewire their food habits to a more healthy diet.  As the cost of the drugs come down, more people will have access and more people will start their journey.

A final thought.  One of the presenters was a medical doctor and she introduced me to the concept of micro-dosing.  The idea that we would find forever drugs that we would take daily in very small doses.  I had never heard of microdosing but it’s a whole world out there.  Maybe that is a topic for another time.